The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has released the first World Minerals Outlook assessing global production capacity for seven critical minerals and helium over the next five years.
The report forecasts that the production capacity of cobalt and lithium, both essential for batteries in mobile devices and electric vehicles (EVs), will double between 2025 and 2029, while the capacity for gallium, palladium, platinum and helium will remain stable.
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The World Minerals Outlook, part of the USGS’ broader effort to forecast global mineral supply chains, aims to provide multiyear forecasts of production, consumption and recycling patterns for 50 critical minerals.
This initiative follows the Energy Act of 2020 and Executive Order 13817, which defined critical minerals as essential to the US economy and national security.
USGS Acting Director Sarah Ryker said: “The USGS scans the horizon for future supply chain risks across a broad range of minerals, informing supply chain strategies ranging from mapping domestic mineral resources to recycling and reprocessing mine waste.
“The World Minerals Outlook makes more of that foresight into future trends available publicly for US leaders, other Federal agencies, industry and the public.”
The methodology of the World Minerals Outlook incorporates data from USGS experts and considers announced and funded projects, subtracting operations nearing the end of their life.
Additional findings from the report highlight challenges for magnesium projects outside China, which face funding issues, leading to idled capacity.
US titanium sponge production capacity has also idled, increasing reliance on imports from Japan.
The report also noted that gallium production capacity outside China is expanding, with potential production in Germany, Kazakhstan and South Korea.
Furthermore, the findings reveal that cobalt production in North America has stalled due to price reductions by China.
Additionally, the demand for palladium is projected to decrease if the EV market grows as EVs do not require catalytic converters. US palladium production could be impacted if prices remain low.
World Minerals Outlook lead author Elisa Alonso said: “The production capacity data in the World Minerals Outlook tells us where industry and the market are expecting demand will grow – as we see with lithium and cobalt.
“As US leaders plan to increase domestic production of critical minerals to reduce reliance on non-market economies and mitigate risks, these data help identify where US capacity may not meet demand.”
The World Minerals Outlook is part of a suite of USGS products that provide insights into critical minerals.
These include the annual Mineral Commodity Summaries and the upcoming updated List of Critical Minerals.
The USGS is also developing scenario analyses to forecast economic impacts of mineral supply disruptions and is mapping critical mineral resources through its Earth Mapping Resources Initiative.
The next World Minerals Outlook is scheduled for release in 2026.
