China’s copper imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have surged, with shipments of refined copper jumping by 71% year-on-year to 1.48 million tonnes (mt) in 2024.
Congo has become the largest supplier of refined metal to China, the world’s top buyer, with Chinese operators dominating Congo’s copper belt, reported Reuters.
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However, this new global trade dynamic makes China’s copper import data less reliable as an indicator of domestic demand.
Last year, unexpected Chinese copper exports disrupted the market, deflating a bullish outlook based on supply shortages.
Despite weak economic indicators, China’s refined copper imports rose 8.6% year-on-year to 4.04mt in 2024, while domestic production increased by 5.4%.
China’s copper imports could be increasing primarily due to the rise in production from the DRC, as the majority of that output is typically directed towards China, the report stated.
China’s CMOC Group flooded the cobalt market with excess supply from its Congo operations and boosted copper production by 55% to 650,000 tonnes last year.
The Lobito Corridor project, aimed at upgrading the railway from Angola’s Lobito port to Congo’s copper mines, is expected to facilitate more exports from Congo to the West, but Chinese-owned mines are likely to continue prioritising shipments to China unless there are strong financial incentives to redirect.
As Congo’s production expands, the flow of metal to China is expected to increase, regardless of the state of Chinese demand.
Meanwhile, Congo overtook Peru as the second-largest copper producer, while Chile’s share of China’s imports fell to an 18-year low and accounted for only 14.3% of the total imports.
