Australia’s copper production set for decline in 2024, recovery expected by 2025

Australia’s copper production is anticipated to decline in 2024 to 765.7 kilotonnes, down by 4.7% over 2023. This is primarily due to the closure of Sandfire Resources’ DeGrussa and Monty mines that together produced 26.3 kilotonnes of copper
in 2023. Additionally, lower production is expected from key copper mines such as Newmont’s Cadia, Telfer, and Boddington mines, as well as Glencore’s Mount Isa mine, further contributing to the overall decline.

During the first half of 2024, these mines had already experienced a decline in
production due to factors such as heavy rainfall during the first half of 2024 at Mount Isa, along with lower ore grades and reduced mill throughput at Newmont’s Cadia, Telfer, and Boddington mines.

In February 2024, Hillgrove Resources Ltd restarted operations at its Kanmantoo mine, which had been shut down for three years due to exploration activities aimed at assessing the potential for developing an underground operation. Additionally,
copper production at mines such as Carrapateena, Ernest Henry, and CSA (Cobar) is expected to increase in 2024. However, this growth will not be sufficient to avoid an overall decline in production.

Looking ahead, production is expected to start recovering in 2025, driven by several new and resumed mining operations. The Cloncurry Copper project began operations in July 2024 and is expected to produce ten kilotonnes per annum. Additionally, new mines including Koongie Park, Sulphur Springs, and Federation Underground are scheduled to commence operations. The planned resumption of operations at Cyprium Metals’ Nifty Open Pit Mine, which was closed in 2019 due to lower copper prices and rising operating costs, will also contribute to the recovery.

Over the forecast period (2025-2030), copper production in Australia is projected to grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6% to reach 942.7 kilotonnes by the end of 2030, owing to the commencement of several new mines such as the
Caravel Copper and Hillside (2026), Elizabeth Creek (2027), Eva and Jervois (2028) and Kalkaroo (2029).